Wrath of the Titan, Part III: The Timing

Early Friday afternoon, from KWCH-12 in Wichita:

Friday, 3:07 PM:

* TIMING... OF THIS WINTER STORM IS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS... WITH A FEW INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

Friday, 5:15 PM, the Sunday forecast for here in Newton:

 


Friday, 6:57 PM, screenshots from JD Rudd's latest forecast video:

Friday, 9:04 PM: As you can see, all of these forecasts vary wildly, some by as many as four or five inches. Nobody will have a really accurate prediction until the morning. Some forecast models have worked the whole ice storm/sleet factor back into everything, as evidenced by JD Rudd's video screenshots above, while others have not. Because I have no social life and all of my friends are apparently in Seattle right now, this is my Friday night -- collecting data on this stuff due to my own morbid fascination with weather.


Friday, 10:50 PM: KAKE-TV in Wichita gives an updated prediction map:

 

They also state that again, this probably will change as the storm rolls in. This map puts me in the 3-6 area, and that 3-6 swooping line basically sits a hair's width above the university's campus on the north end of the city.

Friday, 11:39 PM: An independent meteorologist puts this graphic on Facebook:

 

 Saturday, 4:19 AM:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING... LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY... BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO NEWTON TO EUREKA.
* ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
* WIND CHILLS... OF -10 TO -15 ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS... AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

Saturday, 10:58 AM: As if on cue when the weather changes drastically, my allergies are going bugshit crazy. The actual Weather Channel forecast for Newton does not match the warning above at all, or any previous watches/warnings or snow maps; the forecast says an inch of snow/sleet tonight, and then another inch of snow tomorrow. Even the weather app on my computer is calling for 3-4 inches by tomorrow night. I also find out that Daisy is supposed to get roughly the same amount of snow in Omaha, if not a little more, as this is a very large storm...and she's still at work being forced to work long hours of overtime. It's also supposed to start there before it starts here.


Saturday, 11:26 AM:

 

Reno County is the county adjacent to me to the west.

Saturday, 11:48 AM: KWCH-12 releases their latest projection map; in Newton, I'm in the 4-6 range. The bottom of the 4-6 range is right on the county line. Around the same time, Meteorologist JD Rudd calls for a much wider swath of 4-8 for the Wichita area, also including me.

Saturday, 11:54 AM: There's not really any new data available -- depending on who one believes, it could snow an inch or eight inches here over the course of the next 24 hours or so. Thoughts of ordering pizza are now out the proverbial window, as it's already misting ice/freezing fog outside, which is glazing over the cars in the neighborhood. I don't want to make any delivery driver go out in that. My own car was put in the garage yesterday afternoon, as planned, so she's safe from all of the nastiness about to hit. I, of course, am still here at home with no real plans for most of the day. I'm going to try to draft out my taxes this afternoon and work on some lesson plans, but that's about it. The temperature has already dropped twenty degrees from what it was last night (it's 25 now), making it prime snow weather. And, because of the change in the weather, again, my allergies are killing me. I'm probably going to excise myself from society and from the internet for most of the day so that I can get my minor tasks taken care of and finished, and can focus on my taxes, before spending the afternoon watching the basketball game and spending the evening watching it snow.